What happens to $11 billion in annual US ad dollars if TikTok is banned? That’s the question facing the world of digital marketing as advertisers brace for the potential disappearance of the popular app.

$11 billion is by no means a small amount, so I think it will find its new home quickly.

On the other hand, the Pentagon recently failed its seventh straight review, and the Defense Department said it still can’t keep track of its nearly $1 trillion budget. I think advertising dollars will be handled much more carefully.

Therefore, ByteDance’s TikTok faces a January 19 deadline to sell TikTok’s US operations or risk a nationwide ban. Many brands and marketers are looking to redirect their budgets, according to a report from Reuters reads. Industry insiders point out that Instagram and YouTube will stand to gain the most, with short-form video formats, Reels and Shorts, able to take the lion’s share of TikTok’s ad spend.

This is if people want to switch back to the platforms mentioned above. Many are choosing a different path: The aforementioned Chinese social media app saw a huge spike in popularity earlier this week, gaining nearly 3 million American users in a single day. Not bad, huh?

The sudden chaos surrounding TikTok’s future has sent advertisers scrambling to adapt.

If the ban continues as planned, Instagram and YouTube could see an influx of billions in ad revenue. Platforms with established short-form video capabilities are expected to absorb displaced budgets, especially as advertisers already familiar with these ecosystems look for seamless transitions.

Despite the looming deadline, TikTok has continued to promote itself to advertisers, recently introducing tools to streamline the ad creation process and maintain its presence at high-profile industry events.

But internally, the situation seems less certain. Reports indicate that TikTok employees still don’t know what will happen after Sunday, although the company has offered refunds to advertisers if campaigns are interrupted.

The potential ban has also sparked a scramble among creators and brands to save their content. Influencers, many of whom have built businesses around TikTok, are downloading their data en masse to sustain years of work. One creator shared a video with her followers, giving step-by-step instructions on how to back up their account before it’s too late.

By 2025, the platform was expected to account for 20% of social media ad spending in the United States, up from just 2% in 2020. TikTok’s mix of influencer marketing and shopping features has made it a powerful sales platform. Research shows that nearly 44% of TikTok users in the US are expected to shop on the app by the end of 2024, surpassing Facebook and Instagram.